From Reframing Tariffs to Oogling over Oranges

South Africa has often been criticized for its inability to move from production to manufacturing.   We export iron ore and import steel.  We export sugar and import it to meet demand.  We export maize and import rice.  Our wheels turn in one direction and then come back to bite us from another.  We don’t seem to be very good at the processing game; it's just not our thing. Is that a function of interest, tenacity, or funding? If we're afraid of losing, we will never be good at winning. And so it is, we would rather not enter the arena, so it stands to reason that we will never get the chance to improve. And so that wheel of nothingness continues to turn. 

I was astonished last week to learn that we have over 137,000 vacancies in the ICT sector.  Nova News and Daily Maverick report that around 35,000 jobs are at risk in the citrus sector due to Trump's 30% tariff on imports from South Africa. I was equally shocked to learn that 3.6 million people go to bed hungry within our borders, with many of them surviving on under 2,000 calories per day. 

Bridges, apartments, airports, and highways have been built during our 30-plus-year democracy, and yet we only need to look left and right to see that we still have a long way to go. I also have it on reasonably good authority (pun intended) that we're no longer seen as a destination for capital or aid, with much of that going to our Eastern and Western African counterparts.  It’s time to stand on our own two feet and push through the current round of growing pains. 

In the past 7 days, I've received a variety of inputs from various sources. Data on job opportunities and job losses. Stats on SA exports and SA imports. Heart-warming stories of great success, to heartbreaking stories of starvation. And as you know, I love to connect the dots. Reflecting on these data points, I found myself remembering a conversation I once had with Willie van Straaten. Wille, a genius inventor and entrepreneur, founded Verimark. As a creative thinker, he was fascinated by innovation and problem-solving and became a student of many great innovative thinking methods and philosophies. He introduced me to TRIZ, a model developed by the Russian Space Agency that holds the philosophy that “the solution to the problem lies within the problem”. That got me thinking about Tariffs, what if the problem wasn’t Tariffs, but the oranges?  Instead of focusing on the 30%, what would happen if we focused on 97,000? That's the number of tonnes of oranges we export to the US annually. 

What’s offered below isn’t intended as a solution.  Think of it more as spitballing and simply offering a new, different lens for solving this problem - a way of reframing or rethinking the problem to identify new solutions and potential opportunities for our nation. 

The World of Oranges

Let’s delve into the world of oranges.  Here are a few facts that I’ve picked up from Google, and its friendly AI siblings:

• South Africa is the second biggest exporter of citrus in the world, after Spain

• The import tariff placed on SA citrus exports by the US is 30%

• In 2024, SA exported 164.5m cartons of citrus (2.5m tonnes) to the USA

• A citrus carton is measured in kilograms; each carton contains 15 kilograms of citrus

• The citrus industry includes oranges, mandarins, grapefruits, and lemons 

• According to Daily Maverick, the US imported nearly 100,000 (97,000 according to another source) tonnes of Citrus in 2024, accounting for approximately 5-6% of our annual production

• Export earnings were estimated at R1.9 billion

• There are approximately 35,000 jobs at risk should we lose our US export market

• The Citrus Growers Association has an ambitious goal for us to export 260 million cartons of citrus annually 

Think Differently about Tariffs

If we change the starting point in our thinking, we change the questions that we ask. When we change the questions that we ask, we change the answers that we get. Simply put, we start to think differently. If we focus on tariffs, we will find ourselves trying to repair relations and undo the drama that has unfolded in the past few months. If we focus on the oranges, then everything changes. Here are a few questions that changed how I approached this situation:

• How many tonnes of oranges does SA export to the USA? - 97,000 per annum

• How much does an average bag of oranges weigh in a supermarket? - 3kgs per carry bag

• How many tonnes of oranges would be consumed if 10 million South Africans bought one 3kg bag of oranges a week for four weeks? - 120,000 tonnes

In just four weeks, 15.6% of South Africa's population could consume 23,000 tonnes more oranges than our entire annual export to the US. Is that possible? I did the sum three times to triple-check myself. Even if there's a slight error, this is a highly solvable problem, but only if we are willing to reframe what we see as the problem.

Reframing Problem Statements

What follows in this newsletter is not meant to be a solution or an accurate assessment of the situation. Rather, what I want to do is illustrate that everything changes when you change your starting point, challenge the assumptions, or redefine a problem statement. Play with me for a few moments and allow the thinking to unfold. 

Let's start by asking a different question: What would you or could you do with 97,000 tonnes of oranges? 

The obvious and most logical answer is to eat them. Certainly, that would put a big dent in our national volume if we all bought a bag a week. But what if we added a constraint and said you needed to start a company by doing something with them? I asked ChatGPT for some assistance, and within a few minutes, I had 30 practical use cases for oranges. Some of them seemed commercially meh,  so I pulled out seven that I thought had real potential. 

You Gotta Love Oranges

Kitchen Cleaner: Did you know that mixing orange juice with vinegar creates a potent, sustainable cleaning product?  I am a big consumer and fan of Orange Oil.  I have even given it as a housewarming present for some friends.  They thought I was weird (probably am), but they still asked if they could get more.   It’s made in Plettenberg Bay, and there’s a tiny shop in Kommetjie that also sells the product. I love it.  It smells great, works brilliantly, and is non-toxic and chemical-free.  Nothing like 5 liters of Orange Oil to get the housewarming party conversation going. 

Pool Cleaner: The original Orange Oil product was designed as a pool cleaner.  Yip, you can say goodbye to chlorine and throw some orange into your weir, and bingo, a clean and sparkly pool.  Imagine if every bush lodge used this instead of HTH?  Imagine dipping yourself in a pool that gave you the scent of oranges rather than hospitals. 

Anti-Aging Cosmeceuticals: I once had shares in a company that imported beauty products from Denmark.  I learned a chunk about skin and products during that time, including the power of Vitamin C as an anti-aging ingredient in cosmetics.  Oranges are packed full of Vitamin C, and the oils can be extracted for inclusion in skincare products.  We have smart people in South Africa, scientists who could formulate amazing products for skincare. Some already have. How about we have a homegrown Orange Skincare range, organic, made only from homegrown citrus, and exported to Harrods, or Selfridges, or other international markets? Is there a scientist out there with an inventive mind who wants to pick up on this? 

Candles: I’m not sure how true this is. I was once told by an engineer that Sasol produces tonnes of wax products (much of which gets sprayed onto our fruit exports as a way of increasing it's preservation during travel time). That wax can also make candles, but I was told that despite having all the raw materials, we really struggled to get our candle quality up to export standards, so we continue to import luxury candles. What!!! I balk at the cost of the Yankee Candles (made in you know where). The smallest one retails at a cool R499 on Take-a-Lot. They smell great, they burn long, but surely we can compete. How about the Citrus Candle Factory - a unique range of citrus-scented candles, for local consumption and export delight? Is there anyone out there who can help us improve candle quality and find a way to produce orange-scented candles? 

Fragrance: Jo Malone tinkered in her garage and produced a nutmeg and ginger oil for her body.  Tinkering some more, turning her hobby into a premium global brand, and even having an Orange Marmalade fragrance.  Rock star branding.  How about someone grab some fynbos, extract orange oil, mix in a little other stuff, and launch a range of Citrus-Based Fragrances?  If we can compete with France on Wine, why don’t we compete with them on Fragrance as well?  Ooh, the design and packaging opportunities abound. 

Orange Cake: Growing up, one of my most favourite things to eat was lemon cake.  Mom would make a regular Victoria sponge cake, and then take icing sugar and lemon juice, melt them together, and pour the warm liquid over the cake.  It was addictive.  She also made orange cake, using the same formula.  I can still smell it and taste it now.  I also remember that we always had Madeira cake as a Sunday treat.  Did you know that Madeira cake has its origins in the UK, not Portugal? And it was originally made to be enjoyed with wine. Yip! Can you feel it? Here's an idea dying to happen. Does anyone know a culinary expert?  How about we create a National Citrus Cake, our very own version of Madeira, to be consumed alongside our fabulous Rooibos tea? A new national tradition, something that’s one up on a rusk, and not as fancy as an Italian Panettone?  I’ll ask my mom for a recipe! Who's in?

Firelighters: Shouldn't have a favourite, but this one is my best. Anyone who knows me will also know I’m a big fan of a good South African Braai, lamb chops, and a banger or two. It’s the coal miner in me.  Fire.  I love it.  I had no idea until I started playing in the orange space that oranges make great firelighters.  If you dry the orange peel, grind it up, and compress it into cubes, then hey presto, you have a firelighter. Try it yourself without grinding - buy that 3kg bag of oranges from your local, dry the peel and put them to the test at your next braai. They are guaranteed to smell great, too. And non-toxic. Imagine how many of Orange Firelighters we could sell on Heritage Day, or any day for that matter. Who's in? 

Final Thoughts

I love thinking differently about problems, anything that turns a headache into an opportunity. The purpose of this article isn’t to solve the tariff problem or even to rethink the citrus industry; it's more to illustrate that when you change the lens through which you see a situation, everything you see also changes. What comes out the other side of thinking differently might be a slew of new ideas, business opportunities, and solutions that you may never have thought of before. And remember, once you've had a thought, you cannot unthink it. 

Oh, and don’t forget to think like a Russian - maybe the solution to the problem really does lie within the problem.  That’s all for me this week. 

Happy thinking

Nicola Tyler

www.nicolatyler.com

15 August 2025